Obama Won, and I Didn’t Even Vote
I already know that this post is going to get a lot of negative comments like the religion one. And that’s because this “every vote counts” dogma that everyone loves so much shares a lot with religion. It’s a belief that’s held true without a single bit of compelling evidence, and it’s a strong belief.
But before I get into that, let’s talk about some other things.
First, Obama won and I’m happy about that. I don’t think that he’s a superhero like a lot of people do. When I look at his positions I disagree with most of them. I disagree with most of McCain’s positions as well.
But there are three reasons I was hoping Obama would win.
1. I try to stay clear of conspiracy theories, but I definitely fell into the camp that believed that votes were being hacked. This outcome means that I’m either wrong or that the hacking isn’t as serious as some people think. I’m glad to know that the political process isn’t as corrupt as I thought it was.
2. Obama is smart. When he’s faced with a problem he consults with experts and makes a well thought out decision. I don’t trust McCain to do the same, especially considering how much he’s sold out to get his nomination (I liked him a lot in 2000).
3. The world at large loves Obama. I travel a lot and I think that Obama will do TONS to restore our image in the world.
I have to admit that I was a little surprised that he won. Logically I knew that it was the only reasonable outcome, but I had that niggling fear that the election would be rigged.
Moving on.
The other day I saw a sign that said “vote straight democratic”. To me this is high idiocy.
I’m equally offended to be called a Republican or a Democrat. Know what I am? Someone who thinks for himself and makes up his own mind. People who follow their party blindly are idiots.
It would be a CRAZY coincidence if someone researched issues and agreed 100% with everything the democrats stand for. When someone says that they do, I assume that they are a sheep.
This blind faith to parties really troubles me. Even at the election party I was at, which was all democrats, they were like Pavlov dogs, booing any time a republican was on the screen and cheering whenever a democrat was there.
McCain gave his concession speech. He’s not a great speaker, but I thought that his speech was pretty sincere and gracious. People at the party were booing him. And even at his own rally people were booing what he was saying because he was being so gracious to Obama.
Ridiculous and immature.
Anyway, Obama’s here and hopefully some good will come of that.
Okay, now on to why I didn’t vote.
First, the idea that “your vote counts’” is total garbage. It doesn’t. I tried to find examples of really close elections, but couldn’t find any presidential elections where a state was won by less than 6000 votes. I did find one school board vote where the winner won 1202 to 1201, so for small local offices, my ideas don’t hold true necessarily.
“But Tynan, what if everyone thought like you and didn’t vote?”
Well, that has nothing to do with the situation. If I don’t vote I don’t impact ANYONE else. Most of my closest friends voted, and if I can’t affect them, who can I affect?
I’m not NEARLY arrogant enough to think that my influence extends far enough to affect anything in the election. You’re going to vote or not whether I want you to or not. But still, I admit that it’s conceivable that I have more influence than the average voter, so I didn’t write this until after the election.
If I DID think that I could influence the vote, by the way, I would be voting early, having a camera following me, and making sure everyone knew.
Masses of people voting matter. One vote doesn’t.
I trust the numbers. Look at fivethirtyeight.com. As of this writing they predicted EVERY single state correctly. If I call in and say, “Hey… just want to let you know that I’m voting for Obama,” is that going to change their predictions? Nope.
Texas, where I’m registered to vote, has McCain up by 10%. There is NO way that my vote is going to affect that. Even if EVERY SINGLE Texan I knew and every single Texan who read my blog magically decided to vote like me, that still wouldn’t register in the polls.
Not to mention that Texas doesn’t even matter to Obama. Not a single pollster thought that Texas mattered in the race.
If I was in a serious battleground state in a close race I might consider voting. If I had a huge audience I would consider voting. If I could log in and vote instantly online, I’d vote.
As things stand now it is an unqualified waste of time.
Voting is the illusion that you’re doing something without actually having to do anything at all. This isn’t apathy, this is realism. When Ron Paul was in the running way back then I spent hours working on a project, talking to political consultants and video producers. It didn’t amount to anything, but there was the potential. One vote has no potential.
I know that there are local issues too, and that realistically they can have just as big an effect on local citizens as the national election. Going to vote for those sorts of things could be worthwhile in some cases, but again, the odds of one vote mattering on an issue I actually care strongly about and am educated on are next to none.
Obama won, even without my vote. Proof that at least in this instance, my vote didn’t matter and yours didn’t either.
EDIT: Check out my friend Dova’s post about this. He beat me by a day on it and addressed some good points I left out. Read it here.
(25 votes, average: 3 out of 5)
Loading ...
November 5th, 2008 at 12:05 am
Stick to things your knowledgeable on.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:12 am
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=donoy6QvRvk
I didn’t vote either. I’m right there with you.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:36 am
First off…I’m glad you didn’t vote if you didn’t want to vote. I think the fact that you got behind a candidate (Ron Paul) who you believed in shows that you believe in the process.
But I respectfully disagree with your comment that your vote does not matter. Actually, I believe you said…
“…the idea that “your vote counts’” is total garbage…”
I’m disappointed that you take this notion so literally. The vote that I (and approximately 120 million others) cast today was not intended merely to select our nation’s CEO for the next four years, but was a very conscious choice about the future I want for my country and the world I live in.
In two years, when the next election cycle begins, the pundits will have pored over the statistics created by today’s vote. Even in a place like Texas, where it’s hard to imagine a presidential ballot having an impact in one direction or another, every vote does matter.
Every vote impacts the decisions that are made by your representatives, your mayor, your governor, and even your judges.
These people all want to keep their jobs. And the best way to accomplish that is by pleasing the people.
Over time, the mind of the people does change.
And our votes show them how we’re changing our mind.
Sometimes change is fast. And sometimes it is slow.
But it is never safe to assume that you do not count.
While I am glad that you express your opinion publicly, proudly, and honestly, I sincerely hope in this case, that no one reading follows in your footsteps.
November 5th, 2008 at 2:19 am
Votes count in aggregate. That is why your vote counts at an emergent level, but doesn’t count as a probability. Anyone who has done a political science or even a basic mathematics course could have told you this, but I forgot that you are a PUA. Mindless yabbering matters more than substance and thinking.
Oh, and not only do you suck at mathematics you also suck at critical reasoning. You are making a normative decision (something you should do) based on perceived facts about the world. Look up the is-ought fallacy, cause you just made it.
You also suck at another level of reasoning: you have confused the act of voting with the outcome. Had you attributed some semblance of civic duty to the act of voting — and not been another free-riding, self-centered male version of Paris Hilton that exemplifies everything that is wrong with America — then you might find intrinsic worth to voting based on your act and not just the outcome of your act.
Lastly, not only do you suck at mathematics AND critical reasoning, you also suck at crossing domains with your PUA skills. Change in democracy comes from influencing the masses or people and groups in power. You expect things to change with your vote, yet you remain politically passive.
You my friend are a political beta male with low intelligence and a persuasive personality: you could make an excellent middle manager.
November 5th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Vanmartin said it, “Stick to things your knowledgeable on.”
I love your posts on self improvement or adventures or random advice for living a better life, but to read things like this makes me cringe.
As Phil said, “While I am glad that you express your opinion publicly, proudly, and honestly, I sincerely hope in this case, that no one reading follows in your footsteps.” You do have a strong impact and when you arrogantly state your opinion as fact, people may blindly follow.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:09 am
Had to laugh at Pwned’s comments. He sounds a tad bitter, nevertheless he’s got some very valid points in respect of logical arguments.
Logic is maths you know…and I thought you did well at that based on your poker…
You do make some pretty large errors of logic.
And I don’t give a squat about voting myself by the way. I never vote. But it’s because I subscribe to a view best espoused by Lysander Spooner in his essay Natural Law. I did try to vote once…for Mandela in South Africa, but they wouldn’t let me and the only other time I would have voted was for Cicciolina in Italy, couldn’t do that one either. So there it is.
November 5th, 2008 at 9:30 am
I voted straight Libertarian, (even though I didn’t particularly care for some of the candidate, like the Travis County Sheriff candidate) because their party holds onto ideals and beliefs that are closest to what I stand for. They preach personal responsibility, smaller government and more individual freedom. I knew we had a dog in hells chance of winning this year, but I voted anyway to make a statement. When you look at the numbers and see that Libertarians are gaining more and more votes every election, it motivates people. Hell, it took years to overcome the Federalist Party when America was first founded.
Your vote most definately does count.
November 5th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Victor15b’s comment is the only one that I find in any way persuasive. PWND’s was idiotic but filled with big words and concepts to make it sound like more sound than it was.
People can go on and on about civic duty or the aggregate, but at the end of the day, I could have voted ANY way in this election and nothing would have changed. I believe that’s true in EVERY ELECTION EVER, and I know for a fact was overwhelmingly likely in this election.
Want to prove me wrong? Instead of clinging to the rhetoric you learned in school, show me a national election where one vote would have changed something.
It’s like Bill Gates losing a dollar. It just doesn’t affect him. “But what if he lost ALL his dollars?” Well, losing one dollar doesn’t affect his other dollars. It’s a non issue.
I’m not even saying not to vote. There’s no harm, so if you want to vote - go for it. What I’m saying is that no matter how much rhetoric or wishful thinking you wrap it up in, my single vote does not matter.
Tynan
November 5th, 2008 at 11:01 am
The one point I’d like to make is, I think you sort of lose your “right” to complain about current political policies when you don’t vote. You had a chance to at least contribute, though a minute contribution it may be, to a major decision, but chose to abstain.
It’d be like you writing multiple posts about how great and healthy a vegan diet is, while you stuff your face with meat and candy. Sure the healthy logic is still correct, but how could anybody respect your dietary opinion if you don’t even exercise it yourself?
November 5th, 2008 at 11:02 am
I wouldn’t go as far as to say that your vote doesn’t count, but obviously if you are voting for Obama in Texas, you’re just doing it for the experience of voting.
I live in Florida, a swing state, where Obama only won by an estimated 191564 votes. I guess you can argue that 200,000 votes is a wide margin, and in the grand scheme of things it doesn’t seem like a lot, but I definitely feel like I was apart of something special.
November 5th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Also, with regards to voting along “party lines:”
Personally, I generally lean liberally. As is such, I side with Democrats on the vast majority of issues. I definitely don’t agree on all fronts (particularly Obama’s stance on the national language, but I’d rather have an apple with a blemish, than a moldy pear.
How about another quick analogy? Let’s say I’m an exerciser who has had great experiences with personal trainers who were college athletes. Then, I move to a new town and have a choice between town PT’s. One’s a former college track star, and the other, while still having an impressive resume, was not a college athlete. Based on my experience, even though I don’t know a lot about them, I’d go with the former athlete.
Similarly, because I know that most of my political viewpoints are in line with a lot of democratic policies, I like to see democratic nominies win votes.
November 5th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Tyan,
I read your blog alot. I think as a writer you have a logical, honest approach to how you view the world, good job. I have to say I understand and agree with you that your vote does not matter individually. BUT if we turn to apathy and do not vote it REALLY doesn’t matter. The masses responding lets the “people in charge” know we will fight against tyranny. I wish we had four parties running for president and technically we do including the Independent and Green parties, but they get no press or money for their campaigns making it a corrupt and unfair race. If anything, people, if you think your vote doesn’t matter vote third party or for Mickey Mouse.
November 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Your logic is inherently flawed. The “every vote counts” isn’t meant to be taken literally. Everybody knows that a singular vote will not make or break a candidate (unless it’s from Kevin Costner).
The point is to inspire people to vote for what they believe in. It’s the general apathy and flawed thinking that “my vote won’t matter” that causes 40% of the voting populace to stay home.
I realize you’re arguing that whether or not you vote doesn’t affect whether or not other people vote. That’s not the issue when the country encourages people to go to the polls. The issue is that this election had about a 65% turn out, the largest of all time. Assuming non-voters had the same reasoning as you did, in that their one vote will not make a difference, that’s 35% (over 75 million) of the possible voting population that did not vote.
Are you telling me that 75 million votes couldn’t possibly have swung the vote for or against one candidate?
November 5th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
There was a day when your blog was inspiring, useful, enjoyable. That day is long gone in this disgusting continuation in a series of posts that shows how disillusioned with the world you are. The value in your posts has sunk to a world of negativity that I never used to see your writing project.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Tynan man, Ive agreed with every post Ive read here since you came to Lexington, but this is where you lost me. Its common knowledge that my vote (Nader) didn’t have a grand effect, but yesterday it was the only voice I had. If everyone voted for who they thought was really the best candidate instead of staying home or settling on one of the two major parties, we would already be out of the two-party system, but instead apathy and defeatism carry the day. Just saying, stand by your guns and write in Ron Paul.
November 5th, 2008 at 3:39 pm
In the 2000 presidential elections, George Bush beat Al Gore by 537 votes in Florida. That’s .009% of the total votes cast in the state of Florida. The electoral votes from Florida are what gave George Bush the White House.
If 538 more Al Gore supporters - less than 0.01% of the people who voted in Florida in 2000 - had voted, then he would have been in the White House in 2000.
I’m surprised you didn’t find this in your research trying to find a state separated by less than 6000 votes, especially considering how significant it was.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
My vote mattered.
I voted third party. Every election, third-party votes are increasing. Gradually, politicians are witnessing what will be the eventual demise of our two-party system. You mention liking neither Democrat nor Republican. There is a way to get rid of both corrupt parties, and that is to vote a third party. Any third party, in fact. If everyone that was less than thrilled with the donkey or elephant voted a Libertarian, Green, or Independent candidate, that candidate could even win an election. It is true that such candidates have no hope of actually winning for the next decade at least, but the only way we’ll get there is if people stop thinking their vote is meaningless.
Obama won because he convinced two specific demographics that their vote would count this time - African Americans, and 18-25 year olds. Previously, those voters rarely turned out, but this time they came in style and gave Obama a clean win. In the same way, the only way we’re going to get a good, non-politician in office is if we all show the pundits that America wants something actually different.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
@Clay
That’s a flawed statistic. Yes, the popular vote only had a 538 person difference. But it would have been possible for Gore to have MORE vote and still lose the state.
Winning districts is what matters, not winning votes. Those five hundred votes were spread across the entire state. Bush won because he won the close battles in more districts, the popular vote is so close because Gore won a few districts by up to 100,000 votes. Bushes best victory was 50k.
However, the closest victory was only 15 votes in favor of Bush. But who’s to say there were 15 votes that would have gone in favor of Gore in that district. The other 4 closest battles Gore won.
Check it out if you want:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2000_Florida_results#
I’m not saying it wasn’t close, just that you can’t point to that figure alone and make a basis of opinion on it.
November 5th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
I used to think just like this Tynan, until I realized i wasn’t taking into account something important: the butterfly effect.
My one vote can actually have far-reaching consequences. It’s not just the people you influence with saying that you’re voting and not just the people that you know. But it’s the people that they know, and the people that those people know and so on and so on and so on.
If enough people believe in one thing, it can spread like a virus, and have a far greater impact that one vote or even a circle of friends’ vote.
And interestingly enough, with the popularity of your blog and your personality in general, you are in a unique position to start one of these mind viruses to influence an election in some direction. Don’t underestimate the impact of your influence, what you do and say spreads to many many people in ways that are impossible to measure.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:00 pm
Even though the Electoral College system would seem to obscure the voting power of anyone not in a swing state, I have a few reasons why I was very excited to “do my civic duty”.
First, because unless you’re a white male, your right to vote was earned, not handed to you. Women and ethnic minorities had to fight a long battle to gain their civil rights and we need to remember that and be respectful and mindful when we flippantly take them for granted. It’s not as though this is ancient history; it was less than a century ago.
Further, millions of people across the globe have absolutely no say in who governs them and how. It’s so valuable to be mindful of how free we really are and not squander our power.
If you think that the winner-takes-all rules that decide who our state will go to in the EC is unfair, I’d agree. But don’t forget that one million more voters cast a ballot for the Dem. candidate than did in 2004, while Republican voters stayed at close to the same numbers. Our representatives are fully aware of that and know they have to pay attention to a broader range of issues because they hear a growing level of discontent with conservative leadership.
So, hell yeah, I fully believe that being an informed, active citizen who exercises their hard-earned right to participate in important political processes is simply the best, most responsible choice a person can make.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
Wow. You are absolutely right. Your opinions and actions really don’t matter. Any of them.
In fact, you don’t matter to me at all.
November 5th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Tynan is right. Your vote does not matter. Anyone who thinks differently is brainwashed into a sense of self-importance. As you all know, electoral votes matter, not popular vote. And if you think the popular vote determines the electoral vote, you’re an idiot. Research the electoral college system if you haven’t read up on it in a while. ELECTORS ARE NOT REQUIRED TO VOTE ACCORDING TO THE POPULAR VOTE. So much so that there’s even a term for doing so. Its known as being a faithless elector, and its legal in 26 states. In the other 24 its punishable, but in the history of our country no faithless electors has been punished. Even it its not true, it feels good to actually believe you can make a difference doesn’t it? Poor, sad little puppets…
November 5th, 2008 at 8:26 pm
LOL@Tynan
“Victor15b’s comment is the only one that I find in any way persuasive. PWND’s was idiotic but filled with big words and concepts to make it sound like more sound than it was.”
Red herring and strawman fallacy. You aren’t addressing the issue, instead you are attacking a caricature of my argument. Not that I expect you to be able to offer anything substantive on the issue, since it is clear you don’t have critical reasoning skills.
“People can go on and on about civic duty or the aggregate, but at the end of the day, I could have voted ANY way in this election and nothing would have changed. I believe that’s true in EVERY ELECTION EVER, and I know for a fact was overwhelmingly likely in this election.”
Where you do think you are? The Matrix? Is everything predetermined? My god, what a religious worldview you have. Not only do you not believe in political freedom, i.e: the ability to vote, you also don’t believe in metaphysical freedom, i.e: that people have choice and those choices affect the world.
What a sad, sad, nihilistic view of the world you have.
Also, you responded to my argument didn’t you? What made you do that? Were you predetermined to respond to me? Or did you choose to respond to me?
“Want to prove me wrong? Instead of clinging to the rhetoric you learned in school, show me a national election where one vote would have changed something.”
LOL
The burden of proof is your court Tynan. Not ours, so far you haven’t offered any substantive argument that hasn’t been shot down by the commentators here. YOU are the one that has to offer sound argument for your position. Nor have you responded to anyone’s points.
And you want to talk about rhetoric? What you just did is a classical rhetorical move known as stasis shifting, i.e: shifting the burden of proof onto others. It’s a slimy move and you just made it. Pot. Kettle. Black.
But, allow me to spell out what exactly is wrong with your argument:
(1) You are arguing that you don’t vote because your vote doesn’t matter. In essence: your vote is not decisive, therefore you didn’t vote.
(2) Voting in a place like America is an incredibly large sample set. Tens of millions of people vote. In a large sample set, one vote by definition cannot be numerically decisive. You might think this supports your point, but really it undermines your entire argument. You assume in the first place that your vote is not decisive (and probably secretly wish that it were), you then think that it logically follows that you shouldn’t vote. Once again, it is a naturalistic fallacy. A fact about the world doesn’t imply what you should do.
(3) Ask yourself what would happen if everyone followed the consequences of your worldview: everyone believed their vote didn’t count, therefore they didn’t vote. The sample set would get smaller. Then you’d see much closer elections (maybe even one vote decisions), but they’d be elections based on those that *really* wanted their parties to win, i.e. political zealots (and this is the whole point of voting, who you vote for counts in aggregate, something you seem to have disregarded as ‘rhetoric’). Push that consequences further: What would happen if no one voted at all? In a totalitarian society one man’s vote does matter: the guy who is in total control.
But just to show how historical unaware you are, Snopes actually lists an occasion where one vote matters at the end of a list of urban legends of one votes: http://www.snopes.com/history/govern/onevote.asp
Not that this will matter to you cause you’ll disregard it, as you are too proud to admit when you are wrong.
“It’s like Bill Gates losing a dollar. It just doesn’t affect him. “But what if he lost ALL his dollars?” Well, losing one dollar doesn’t affect his other dollars. It’s a non issue.”
Piss poor analogy. You assume that Bill Gates is a party, only one party, that money goes towards. Democratic voting has many, and in your analogy some of that money would also go to them. Where are the other political parties voted for in your crappy analogy?
“I’m not even saying not to vote. There’s no harm, so if you want to vote - go for it. What I’m saying is that no matter how much rhetoric or wishful thinking you wrap it up in, my single vote does not matter.”
Yes, and the reasoning you give for your argument has shown to be wrong. What will you do now?
November 5th, 2008 at 11:22 pm
@matt
Although technically speaking, you are correct, I cannot recall ANY case in which all electoral votes of a particular state did not follow the will of the popular vote.
Vote and ye shall receive.
November 5th, 2008 at 11:58 pm
If you believe that you have no influence on the election, then you should propose a solution. Simply being a whiny douche doesn’t help the situation.
You used to be inspiring. This is the opposite.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:19 am
@PWNED
Hey do you have a blog? If you do, I would add it to my list of often visited sites.
Btw I voted McCain and live in a welfare infested state that always votes blue.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:37 am
One last comment, and then I’m done with this one. Call it giving up, or accept it as not wanting to spend more time on something that offers no possibility of being worth the time (like voting).
I disagree with 99% of what has been said here, but I’m glad people speak their mind. At the end of the day I’ve failed to get my point across and I’ll accept that. A few points made in the comments were somewhat constructive and I’ve tried to learn from them.
I’ll skip the weird laundry list of fallacies. I looked up the is-ought one, didn’t see how it could remotely apply to my argument, and don’t care enough to look up the others.
PWND talks about predetermination. No, I don’t believe in it. I believe in math, science, and reality. The reality is that my VOTE could not have affected the election in any way. I’m willing to agree that maybe there’s a .00000001% chance (being generous) that I’m such a shining beacon that when I vote everyone in the building votes with me and then calls their friends and convinces them to vote with me too.
That small of a chance of influencing an election is not worth the time and effort to vote. FOR ME. If it is for you, great.
That doesn’t mean that there’s NO WAY I could affect the election. This world isn’t predetermined and there is some possible domino effect chain of events that could have led to me affecting the election.
And I respect people involved in these sorts of endeavors, including (ironically) people who work with organizations that are trying to get more people to vote. Those organizations can potentially mobilize significant amounts of voters in battleground states. Someone in Florida in 2000 could have done this. His vote wouldn’t matter, but his initiative to get others to vote COULD have made a serious impact.
So point one - if you care SO much, you should be doing more than voting. There are far greater ways to have an impact.
As I mentioned in the post, I was excited about Ron Paul and tried to make a difference. I donated money, encouraged readers to donate, and spent a lot of time trying to get the founder of Paypal to fund an informercial for him.
Not apathy. Realism.
I believe in putting in an effort when that effort is likely to yield worthwhile results. That goes for everything in life. My single vote IS NOT. I also don’t buy lottery tickets.
Florida was won by 537 votes and that changed the election. They KNEW it would be close in Florida and that it was an important state. These things aren’t surprises. If I was in that state and really cared about a candidate I would be out on the streets getting people to vote, and would vote myself.
Texas in 2008 was FAR from that. Obama had such a predicted landslide that no state was all that important. He was easily predicted to win in more than enough states.
Addressing PWND’s problems with my argument:
(1) That’s right. My vote was not decisive and had statistically ZERO (or as close as can be reached) chance to be decisive, so I didn’t.
(2) This does support my point. The larger the sample set, the less a chance my vote has of mattering. Given that Obama was everything but a shoe-in and that NO POLLSTER even considered that Texas might go for him, or that he would even NEED the state to win, my vote could not matter.
(3) If knew all the fallacies like you do, I’m sure I could point one out here. My vote and everyone else’s votes are independent events.
I’m not saying “if everyone thought like me, the election’s outcome would be the same”. That’s what you’re arguing. There’s no reason to entertain the fantasy of everyone sharing my worldview. That’s not reality. Reality is that everyone else will vote or not vote as they please, and withdrawing my vote has no chance of altering the election.
Anon says I should propose a solution. I don’t really see a problem. If I WANTED to have a say, I would take real actions that have a non-zero chance of affecting the election. Voting, in my situation, was not one of those actions.
There are two arguments presented here that I think have some merit.
1) The idea of voting for a third party candidate is okay. I think that still one vote is WAY too small to matter. In Texas Bob Barr, who is probably who I agree with most, got 56,398 votes out of more than eight million. But at least your vote is going to increase his vote total by .0017% instead of the .000028% that you could increase Obama’s.
2) Voting in local races. There are probably some cases where these are really close. Even if very few have been won by one vote, there are probably a lot that are statistically close enough that it MIGHT come down to one vote. That’s what matters and if I cared in an election like that, I would vote.
I think it’s admirable for people to be involved in local politics, but I’m personally not involved.
And that’s all I can say about it. Disagree if you want. Unsubscribe if you want. Be offended if you want. Come back at me with theoretical arguments that are wholly disconnected from real life.
Or take it as an opportunity to read a viewpoint that doesn’t mesh with yours and think about it logically and with an open mind. I’ve tried to do that with your arguments, and so I know firsthand that it’s difficult, but it’s the only approach I can see that has any merit.
November 6th, 2008 at 3:29 am
“I’ll skip the weird laundry list of fallacies. I looked up the is-ought one, didn’t see how it could remotely apply to my argument, and don’t care enough to look up the others.”
They apply to your argument, as your arguments are poorly thought out and I’ve called you on it. If you can’t see that, then you must be as dumb as dog shit. But then again compare this paragraph I’ve highlighted with your very last paragraph. The inconsistency is striking.
“PWND talks about predetermination. No, I don’t believe in it. I believe in math, science, and reality.
Incorrect. You were the one that talked about predetermination. I’ll even highlight the part were you said the election was predetermined:
“People can go on and on about civic duty or the aggregate, but at the end of the day, I could have voted ANY way in this election and nothing would have changed. I believe that’s true in EVERY ELECTION EVER, and I know for a fact was overwhelmingly likely in this election.”
That’s what you said. So instead of playing rhetorical games again, you better lay off the crack pipe.
“The reality is that my VOTE could not have affected the election in any way. I’m willing to agree that maybe there’s a .00000001% chance (being generous) … My vote was not decisive and had statistically ZERO (or as close as can be reached) chance to be decisive, so I didn’t.”
That’s exactly the point. You are making a shitty argument for what you should do. No fucking shit that your one single vote isn’t going to change something in an extremely large sample set, but it has nothing to do with what you should do, nor does it have anything to do with aggregate voting, nor does it have to do with a multitude of other valid reasons.
Your conclusion is supported by a crappy premise. At the time you considered not voting you could not have known what the outcome was. You quote pollsters as supporting your argument, and above you also talk about science and realism. I had a good fucking chuckle at that. I point you towards Penn & Teller’s Bullshit episode on pollsters, not that I expect you to watch it.
“If knew all the fallacies like you do, I’m sure I could point one out here. My vote and everyone else’s votes are independent events. If knew all the fallacies like you do, I’m sure I could point one out here. My vote and everyone else’s votes are independent events.
I’m not saying “if everyone thought like me, the election’s outcome would be the same”. That’s what you’re arguing. There’s no reason to entertain the fantasy of everyone sharing my worldview. That’s not reality. Reality is that everyone else will vote or not vote as they please, and withdrawing my vote has no chance of altering the election.”
Incorrect. It’s called reductio ad absurdum, and it is a valid method of argument to take your position to rediculous consequences. It means there is something wrong with your reasoning. It doesn’t mean I support that argument, it means I’ve taken a rediculous view that is inherent in your premises. It’s a form of argumentative ju-jitsu. I’m using your crack-pipe argument against you and you took it hook, line, and sinker thinking it is actually my position. Fucking hilarious.
Also, you are looking at this as a poker game. All these metaphors and analogies of “independent events,” “lotteries,” and chance have you made unable to accept there are other points of view outside your worldview.
“Come back at me with theoretical arguments that are wholly disconnected from real life.
Or take it as an opportunity to read a viewpoint that doesn’t mesh with yours and think about it logically and with an open mind. I’ve tried to do that with your arguments, and so I know firsthand that it’s difficult, but it’s the only approach I can see that has any merit.”
bwahahaha
Dude, you are a fucking joker. Think about it logically … what do you think fallacies are? They are a form of informal logic. My arguments would definitely have some problems with it (for instance I use ad hominem multiple times above and in the other post, but hey … fuck it, if I’m talking to conceited idiots then que sera sera). Nobody’s ideas are fullproof. But at least I’d be willing to call myself out when I’m actually fucking wrong.
November 6th, 2008 at 4:16 am
Actually you know what? Maybe I was a little bit too harsh with the above comments. I’ll probably get eaten alive for this comment, but fuck it.
You are right, you can make any decision you goddamn want, and nobody should tell you otherwise, including myself.
My problem was with your reasoning (and I still think it is incorrect), and I’ve probably gone overboard with it. So continue on, I won’t be adding any more cursing bon mots into this discussion.
November 6th, 2008 at 5:00 am
Tynan, keep saying what you like - we are all old enough to make up our own minds. and anyone that blindly follows what you say has got more problems than wondering who to vote for, if at all!
November 6th, 2008 at 8:42 am
I too am an atheist, dislike both parties, like Ron Paul, prefer Obama over McCain, and didn’t vote. Voting is like masturbation: it feels good but accomplishes nothing. When I tell people that I think voting is a waste of time they look at me like I just kicked their puppies. What I don’t get is how even people much smarter than me can’t think for themselves.
But anyway, just wanted to say nice post.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Tynan,
I respect your right not to vote. This is America, after all. Voting anything but Republican in Texas is definitely a waste of time. Besides, every person who doesn’t vote just makes everyone else’s vote count more.
People act like you’re a leper if you don’t vote. It’s just a way for them to feel morally righteous. Which is hypocritical, considering I’m sure they don’t vote in elections that they have a chance of influencing, such as local or state elections. A bunch of bandwagon bigots, if you ask me.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
Allow me to chime in. Tynan, I was critical of the religion post as you may remember.
With this post the only problem I see with your decision of not to vote is that it disqualifies you, in my opinion, to criticize or critique party leaders, presidents, and the general direction of the country. If you sit on the sidelines with your one voice you have no legitimate prerogative to bitch when “Bush sucks,” “USA is so fucked,” etc… which, not to offend but I have seen you do on multiple occasions. Now you (and I’m speaking in general terms when using “you”) can continue to do this, but if you don’t take the principle of exercising your right to vote seriously, that how can you seriously expect people to take any political, national commentary of yours seriously? Again, it’s the principle more than the “reality” of what your one vote means.
I also can’t stand the whole “vote straight democrats/republicans.” In general I cant stand the radical lefts and the radical rights and generally think they act and think completely ridiculously without considering reality. But hey, I respect that they chose to exercise their right to vote even when their views sometimes totally undermine that right.
BTW, Are the personal attacks really necessary? I think we can have a logical, intelligent conversation without those. PWNED you are obviously very intelligent and well-informed, but telling people they are dumb as dog shit hurts your argument. Defeat them with your wits not your words.
And Tynan, I didn’t mind this post at all and was definitely not offended. Apathy is your prerogative. With that said the recent cycle of controversial posts that don’t add much value to the reader is kind of reminding me of when Steve Pavlina went off the deep end. I’m not saying you are going crazy but is the extra readers you are getting from these “shock” topics worth it? Would you rather have a small amount of readers who consider, respect, and think about what you have to say, or a large number of readers who just come here to “see what that guy has to say next”? Just curious but I think what you’ll see with the latter is a large jump in readership and then it’ll just bottom out at some point.
Best Regards,
Vincent
November 6th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
With that said… the last few posts have been fun and entertaining! Keep it up.
November 6th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Saying that someone can’t have an opinion because they don’t participate is just silly.
You complain about weather without participating don’t you? The thing is, is that if Tynan could build a machine to change the weather, he would. As seen by his campaigning for Ron Paul. He pulled out all the stops during the primaries to get that man elected, do some archive and forum browsing to see what I’m talking about.
It’s not apathy. He knows what issues are important to him and he knows who supports those issues. He won’t vote for someone that doesn’t support them. He doesn’t write in a vote for Ron Paul because it’s simply a masturbatory action. He can look at the figures and the voting history and all other information, and reason, logically, that his single vote, on a macrocosmic level, doesn’t change anything.
There’s nothing wrong with wanting to get yourself off by voting. Tynan just doesn’t.
November 6th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Vincent:
I didn’t write this post to be controversial or to get extra readers. I honestly figured that many people would identify with it and a few would get offended.
It is a TOTAL surprise to me that almost no one understands what I’m saying. As I said a previous comment, I chalk that up to me failing to communicate my point adequately.
My intention was for this to BE a post that added value. I personally think that it should give people ideas about their roles in the political process and using their time and energy effectively.
I agree that in the end it didn’t do that.
Any changes I make to get more readers will be things like making it easier to subscribe to RSS, or putting in more links to other posts so that new readers will have a chance to get “hooked”.
I won’t, and will not write posts to get more readers. If I was going to do that, you’d see a string of “TOP TEN…” posts.
As I’ve said before, this is NOT apathy. You can read my other comments for my justification of that.
I also don’t agree with the “if you don’t vote you can’t complain” notion. What makes a vote, which is a totally insignificant action, the cutoff point? If you want to argue that point, why not say that if you don’t spend 20 hours campaigning, for example, then you can’t complain?
It’s a soundbite that sounds good but doesn’t make much logical sense.
And as a minor point - you’ve never heard me complain for the sake of complaining. I’ve used my distaste for the current government situation to prompt ACTION. I left the country in part because I wasn’t happy with what was happening here. I worked to try to get Ron Paul elected because of it.
Neither of those actions are particularly profound, but each one is certainly more effective than a vote that could not affect an election.
And again, I reject the idea that voting on principal means anything practically. To me it’s like saying that you support education because you dropped a penny in a classroom once.
But that’s just me, and we all have things we do in principle that are important to us. For example, I won’t ever stay at Comfort Inn. They screwed me over and I won’t stay there on principal.
If someone tells me, “You know… not staying with them will never actually affect their bottom line. It’s kind of dumb to do that.” then I’d say, “Yea, it is kind of dumb but it makes me feel good.”
I wouldn’t try to argue that my small patronage actually matters. It’s an emotional decision, just like this one - which is why people react emotionally more than logically.
Anyway, thanks for leaving a thoughtful comment.
Tynan
November 6th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
Tynan, fair enough. Again, I respect your opinion and appreciate the thought put in your own refutation of my own stated opinion. I won’t sit here and throw fancy latin words around and tell you that your logical reasoning is incorrect.
Ultimately, I think what it comes down to is that people weigh their priorities differently. For me, I think the principle of voting is important to the country and to my own moral and ethical reasoning. In my opinion voting is MY standard to which you should be allowed to complain and bitch about the country. In your case you were politically active and i absolutely respect that. But when others complain and tell me how stupid Bush is and all the things wrong with America, I ask if they voted, if they say no then I consider their opinion to be substantiated by nothing, and thus in my reasoning and based on my standards I think their opinion carries little weight.
Also, I know I’m not going to change the world with my 1 vote, but truth be told, perhaps unlike you, not everything I do is based on its practicality and its “grand-scheme” significance. I choose not to live my life constantly thinking about the expect return on my actions. I act and do what I want and what I think is right, and to me that is living life awesome. Your idea of living life awesome and how to achieve that is perhaps different in some practices, but that doesn’t mean we both aren’t arriving at the same outcome of doing what we want and think is right.
Again, I too am surprised at the reactions of your post, and I understand that you didn’t wrte this to get more readers. But you did know it would be controversial and you stated in the first sentence. I don’t think your post was particularly profound, to be honest. If anything in questioning it myself I would suggest that it is perhaps more the tone of your arguments than what you are arguing. As much as I enjoy you writing and ideas, and your individualism, sometimes you make blanket statements such as “[voting] is an unqualified waste of time.” Instead of generalizing, and perhaps it is a waste of YOUR time, but for other who share a different reasoning than you it is important to them. Conclusively, sometimes your writing reads as everything being black and white, when in reality for most, the gray area deserves some consideration.
Of course it is your blog, your ideas, and your opinions and your not exactly required to maintain a balanced perspective and consideration, but I think thats why some people are turned off. I personally disagree with them in this instance as I think that for you and Dova, you have a legitimate position based on your personal priorities, considerations, and decision making.
Thanks again for the intelligent debate.
Best,
Vincent
November 6th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Pardon my untimely remarks, but I had to post this link:
http://politicalirony.com/2008/11/02/why-the-electoral-college-sucks-graphically/
Texas, your state, has slightly better say in the election than Florida, the worst. I can understand why you feel your vote doesn’t mater.
That being said, I don’t agree that voting doesn’t matter. I believe being informed does matter, and if you are informed you should vote. It’s an intangible thing, being informed. Politics can seem so arbitrary. But if people here in California were informed about the actual risks of letting homosexual couples marry, they wouldn’t have denied them rights in the constitution to marry. Even the non voters count in this case, because they were afraid and influenced other voters. It’s a sad day when a ballot proposition about giving chickens rights passes in a landslide, but human beings are stripped of rights.
November 6th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
I have to disagree. I think you have a responsibility as a citizen to vote. Don’t think your vote matters? Look at FL in 2000- 100 votes decided the election.
Granted, we’re in TX, so our vote doesn’t matter in the general election. But I must have voted for 30 or 40 local elections and issues here.
Al Franken’s behind in MN by 236 votes! That’s nothing. Your vote can definitely matter. I sure wish the country was on optical scan ballots though.
http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/34024274.html
November 7th, 2008 at 4:16 am
If you voted, good for you.
If not, good for you too.
But I think it’s cool we have a black president.
Once you go black, your not turning back.
November 7th, 2008 at 6:06 am
Ron Paul is a racist, sexist, old fool. You are a racist, sexist, young fool. Some things don’t change in this country, others like the country turning the corner with Obama do.
I feel sorry for you, you try so hard to feel like you have community but you have none. Really you ought to check your ego, you’ve got some good ideas but please stay out of politics, in this field you have no clue!
November 8th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Think how much worse the market crash of 2008 would have been if loopy libertarians like Tynan has their way. The state has now had to come to the rescue because deregulated markets just don’t work.
November 9th, 2008 at 5:56 am
Hey Tynan
Time it takes me to cast my ballot: 20 mins
Time it took Tynan to research and write this article 3-4 hours aprox.
Its Remembrance Sunday here in Britain. Everyone wear poppys on the lapels and theres a two minute silence at 11:00 to remember the British soldiers that have died over the last hundred years. I stayed quiet at 11:00 and thought about some of the horrifying circumstances that people must have been in the the two world wars. I also thought about the bravery and heroism of some of our soldiers. I don’t know any veterans and I’m not personally going to thank any. I don’t think my act will make the slightest bit of difference to their lives. But thats not the point. Its a personal act of thanksgiving. It makes me feel good to take part in something greater than myself. It makes me feel good to show appreciation for people who were doing something for me.
Tynan, everyone knows that one vote doesn’t make a difference. You’re not gonna win a prize for pointing that out I’m afraid. I don’t have a problem with you not voting I’m just saying why I vote. I’m a part of my country and its government and politics affect me. I take an interest in it and discuss it and want the best for myself and the people around me. I’m not a proffessional politician though, I have my own ways of contributing value to society. I don’t want to knock on doors or fundraise. But once every four years I go down to the ballot box and contribute in my simple way.
Email me and let me know when you’re coming to London next year and I may be able to put you up, plus can probably plan some crazy adventure or other. Do you have dogging in the US?
Murphy
November 9th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
Tynan wrote “Even at the election party I was at, which was all democrats, they were like Pavlov dogs, booing any time a republican was on the screen and cheering whenever a democrat was there.”
I was at the same party, and that just isn’t true. Nobody booed McCain. It didn’t happen.
I briefly booed Giuliani because I am angry at the way he tried to exploit the tragedy of 9/11 for his own political gain. And if a Democrat had tried to exploit 9/11 for the same purposes, I would have booed that person too. In other words, I wasn’t booing Giuliani because he happens to be a Republican.
Everyone listened respectfully to McCain’s speech. You shouldn’t misrepresent what happened at the party.
Dave
November 11th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Saying “Obama is going to win by a landslide anyway so I shouldn’t vote” is pretty… dumb logic. No offense dude. If every Obama voter thought that (which a lot did, especially here in NJ), then he lost thousands of votes in the end.
Those final numbers are all votes and wouldn’t exist if it weren’t made up of hundreds of thousands of single ‘I don’t matter’ votes.
You stitch together 100, 1000, 10000, 100000 of those ‘what I say doesn’t matter’ votes….. Well then. What do you know. You matter.
The whole couldn’t exist without the individual.
The sad part? Millions upon millions of people think like you. Literally millions. Enough people that if all of you people who sat and wasted their time complaining about how they ‘don’t matter’ and won’t vote got up and voted for Donald Duck… well. We’d have the first duck president in history.
November 13th, 2008 at 10:56 pm
Where were you in the year 2000? the florida count was down to a mere 49 votes in favor of George Bush, the slimest in American history, followed by the kennedy/nixon election in 1960 where illinois came down to antoher slim majority for kennedy. Sure even one vote cant change it there, but its not about any one person and their own view its the conscious decision to do it over a vast populace. By collectively thinking that they themselves do not make a difference, those many people have collectively made a big difference.
November 14th, 2008 at 5:58 am
Quite simply tynan, if you didn’t vote, you’ve got no say in what happens to your country. You have absolutely no right to complain.
November 17th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
Tynan, I get your point. I’ve lived in Alabama and Georgia, and if I had wanted to vote anything but republican, I’d say the same thing. It simply won’t affect the election results. Those states will never come down to a margin of a few hundred votes. I’d imagine what you’re trying to say is that when you know the margin is close, you’ll vote. Until it gets close, it’s not worth your time; you can make a bigger difference through other avenues.
I can respect that. However, I will reiterate that this is the exact situation we should vote third-party candidates in. I wish Ron Paul would have been put up by the Lib party; he would have had a good shot at the 5%. Basically, if we can get one of these candidates to 5% of the popular vote, they become eligible for critically important federal funding. The additional exposure might get them to 10% the next election, and then 20%, and then we finally have a viable 3-party system. Such a system would be incredibly beneficial to our country instead of choosing between the lesser of two losers. So, we need 5%. Your vote would have not made a huge difference, but it’s about slowly gaining and getting to that critical 5%.